The gold price is rising steadily since about a decade – with an additional boost from 2008. From a scientific point of view everything speaks otherwise arise for a speculative bubble, which is based mainly on questionable psychological assumptions. The question is not if but when this bubble bursts.
For eleven years the gold price rises, with an average return of 20% pa (in USD) and is thus probably the most successful asset class of recent years and the beginning of this boom was little noticed, only a few gold-fans or something contemptuously called gold bugs saw, now confirmed in their forecasts have always been established. Even the interim decline in September 2011 has not altered the basic uptrend nothing. Ever since the financial crisis, however, gold is an increasingly wider attention, which have found the arguments of the gold bugs for rising gold prices into the mainstream of the business press. From the scientific side, there are concerns, however large the arguments against the principle as well Anlanger gold. The sharp rise is seen by economists as not a few bubbles.

The commonly mentioned reasons for the increase or a rising price of gold can be divided into four groups:

• First Increased consumer demand (jewelry, medicine)

• Second the demand by central banks

• Third monetary factors

• 4th psychological factors

No attention is paid to fundamental arguments for buying gold, such as forgery, the tax exemption of capital gains, etc., because these were already before the gold boom, they can not explain the increase. Striking is the focus on the demand side, while the supply side is not usually used as an explanation. kejobs

The gold price has seen in recent weeks, a constant up and down. Looking at the price action since October, it is obvious that took place starting from around 1,600 U.S. dollars per troy ounce by early November, an increase of up to 1,800 U.S. dollars, only to correct up to about 1650 U.S. dollars and a renewed companies to start to cross the 1,700 U.S. dollar level. On the supply side, it could lead to a further shortage. In Australia in the past third quarter, gold production has been declining. On a quarterly basis, it fell by 2.4 percent to 2.1 million ounces. Compared with the previous year’s amount to a decline of around 1.5 tons. Australia to China is currently the second largest gold producer in the world and has reached in the first eight months of this year, a reduction amount of over 220 tons of gold. Could be justified with the current reluctance of the growing skepticism of the mine operators who follow the development of the gold price closely. In the current year, the price of gold is actually developed only in one direction and has grown from one record high to another. If the gold price in the future, however, stagnate or decline, then, some technically very complicated – and therefore very expensive – and more profitable mining projects do not fall the corresponding gold offering. Also shifts the weight of the gold sponsors continue to market: the former nation’s largest carrier in the world, South Africa, has now slipped to fifth place. On the demand side, Gold is an important raw material for the industry of which due to its excellent thermal and electrical conductivity for the precious metal for the electronics industry is close to indispensable. The most important by far the industry demand for gold, however, continue to the jewelry industry, which accounts for about 75 percent of the total demand for the precious metal. Also carries the growing importance of Exchange Traded Commodities (ETCs) to its share in that physical demand for precious metals continues to rise. ETCs are securities that are linked to the performance of one or more commodity prices and by the physical deposit of raw materials (precious metals in the deposit is usually mapped using the raw material itself) are secured. In particular, physically backed gold ETCs are currently experiencing a high inflow of funds. The volume of this asset class has achieved over the past trading week a new record of over 2,350 tons.

At current gold prices, this represents a value of nearly 130 billion U.S. dollars. Investors considering an investment in gold, but should also be aware that arise when investing in this precious metal no current income, such as interest payments. Furthermore, the physical storage to be associated with costs. Another risk of the investor contributes not currency hedged products due to possible exchange rate fluctuations. This can, however, by the use of so-called quanto products eliminate. The participation certificate on Gold (TSX: SG9F3Q) reflects the value of the gold price almost one to one. The running time is unlimited (open end) and the currency hedging currently a quanto fee drops of 2.86% per year. For investors who want to give up a hedge of exchange rate fluctuations, the Societe Generale also provides the appropriate participation certificate (ISIN: SG0AYL) on gold without quanto feature. Risk-taking investors also have the opportunity to leverage products – and to set different levels of active lever averaging a corresponding gold price change – for example with a Turbo Unlimited. Unlimited Turbos are distinguished by the fact that the stop-loss barrier corresponds to the base price. In the long version can be benefited from falling prices from rising in the short variant. It should be noted that there may be in the use of Unlimited turbos because of the leverage effect, not only to disproportionate profits, but also to the disproportionate losses. At an early maturity by reaching the stop-loss barrier, an amount of 0.001 EUR will be paid.