The gold price is rising steadily since about a decade – with an additional boost from 2008. From a scientific point of view everything speaks otherwise arise for a speculative bubble, which is based mainly on questionable psychological assumptions. The question is not if but when this bubble bursts.
For eleven years the gold price rises, with an average return of 20% pa (in USD) and is thus probably the most successful asset class of recent years and the beginning of this boom was little noticed, only a few gold-fans or something contemptuously called gold bugs saw, now confirmed in their forecasts have always been established. Even the interim decline in September 2011 has not altered the basic uptrend nothing. Ever since the financial crisis, however, gold is an increasingly wider attention, which have found the arguments of the gold bugs for rising gold prices into the mainstream of the business press. From the scientific side, there are concerns, however large the arguments against the principle as well Anlanger gold. The sharp rise is seen by economists as not a few bubbles.
The commonly mentioned reasons for the increase or a rising price of gold can be divided into four groups:
- First Increased consumer demand (jewelry, medicine)
- Second the demand by central banks
- Third monetary factors
- 4th psychological factors
No attention is paid to fundamental arguments for buying gold, such as forgery, the tax exemption of capital gains, etc., because these were already before the gold boom, they can not explain the increase. Striking is the focus on the demand side, while the supply side is not usually used as an explanation. kejobs